Friday, August 7, 2015


Jobs report came in today at 215,000.  Yea, are the initial sounds from the talking heads!  Right on the money!  The Fed can now move in September!

Ah, not so fast.  To begin they were lousy jobs.  Secondly, the percentage of unemployed actually went up to the highest level ever.  93,000,000 Americans have no work.  Thirdly, average pay rose only by 0.2%.  Fourthly, inflation remained non-existent (at least by official tally). Fifthly, Mr. Carney at the Bank of England said no to this year which means Janet et Cie. would be ahead of the pack which is exactly where she doesn't wish to be. And finally, the DOW closed down for the sixth--or was it the seventh--day in a row on concerns about all sorts of things.

As if to confirm all of the above, the bond market thought about it and the 10 year slid to 2.17%...not the stuff of impending rising interest rates.  I'm still of the opinion that nothing happens until December despite the more vocal nature of the hawks on the board, none of whom it might be noted are on the Open Market Committee, save for the smartest guy in the room who rarely makes pronouncements.  It is a funny time; nothing is really wrong and yet nothing is really right.  The dog and pony show that was the first Republican debate has taken the air out of the news cycle and out of the business cycle it seems.  Want to know my winners?  Mario and Carly.  Sounded good and looked good.  But of course I know nothing about politics.  Probably not much else at this stage either.

Finally, everyone is talking about how important it is for Greece and the EU to come to terms.  Now there is a revelation, and of course something will get done next week...well, by August 19... because the Greeks owe a whole bunch of money come August 20.  England has essentially won the Ashes with Oz, 90 behind chasing 391, down to their last three wickets and the Poms with full innings in front of them.  Joy throughout the Isles.  Football (American) practice stated this week and the pennant races are in full swing.  To answer the question, high note I think.  Things are looking up.

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