Wednesday, July 8, 2015


Monday I suggested that the Greeks had buggered themselves.  Mind you, I took a lot of stick for that phrase and while a touch less than the language of a gent, I thought, given the players it was pretty clever.  Little did I know.

There is a financial journalist--quite a good one by the way--named Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (he had better be good) who wrote in the Telegraph today that what actually happened was that Tsapris called the referendum expecting to lose even though the party was pushing for a "No" vote.  Of course they won in a landslide buggering (that word again) their plans to simply resign and leave the mess--and the blame--to the next guy up.  Love that game-theory approach to life.  What you expect to happen usually doesn't because their are Human Beings involved and Human Beings are, ah, unpredictable.  But boy!  Did I hit in on the head (if ol' Ambrose is correct).  As to lucky or good?  Whatever the original plan was, I was right so I guess I'm just.......lucky.  Now what?

The Greeks came to Brussels bearing...nothing.  But they have been given until Sunday to come up with a plan or THIS time they are out of the club.  Let me translate that:  for God's sake you morons come up with something-------anything-------and you will get a deal.  The IMF will write it for you...hell, I'LL write it for you.  You are not going to get debt relief just now but anything that gives the Euro politicians cover back home by way of "strict adherence" language will allow you to go forward.  You are not only going to have the EZ members in place but all 28 members of the EU and those without the Euro as a currency will be sympathetic.  Mario has promised to hold the banks together until Monday which is another clear sign that you have a shot but remember, this mob has stated without reservation that you are OUT without a plan.  They will not go back on that promise but it is clearly one they don't want to enforce.  Be contrite enough but not too contrite to wind up on a lamppost when you get back home.  That's the scenario, unless... really don't want a deal.  Could that be the case?  Well, yeah it could be.  Stranger things have happened dear reader especially when you have seriously committed lefties determined to found the New Socialist State of Europe.  They are just that nuts.  Try this.  They produce nothing; the Euros having announced that it is the end of the line, wait for the default on June 20 and then they kick them out.  How they do that (I don't believe there is any formal mechanism) I don't know but in these matters a mere declaration would probably work.  OK say the Greeks, we're out, nobody owes nothing to anybody and we have a new currency, the Socialistis or Soci for short.  Now here is where things get interesting.

The Soci has to be pegged to something at the start...not a hard peg but if you have 10 Euros the issue is how many Socis will that represent?  This is not an easy question and I don't pretend to be the one to whom one goes to get the answer.  I will contend, however, that the determination will be more of a S.W.A.G--that's Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess--that any true mathematical, financial or economic proof.  And that's where the real trouble begins.

I leave you with one final thought.  Whilst pondering this, you might throw in the issue of how many Euros have the Greeks squirreled away outside of Greece in the past nine months?  One Billion?  Two?   Three?  At least I would bet.  That means the minute the new currency comes into play, there are going to be a whole bunch of seriously Soci-rich people and a lot more whom are desperately poor subject to what will certainly be a whacking-great inflationary environment.  Game theory:  the chance of blood being spilled becomes more real than any game.  Let's hope it does not come to that.

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