Thursday, April 16, 2015


William Hill called "no more" yesterday.  The betting has ended in so far as the famous British bookmaker is concerned.  Greece will default.

Now that is not yet a certainty, but Willie Hill has been around for a long time and is damn good at what they do which is handicapping practically anything.  If it came done to them against, say, Little Paulie Krugman, I would take them hands down.  I think what they are looking at is the growing sense of not perhaps the inevitable but the increasing realization that no one gives a damn.  There are signs of panic as well.  Two days ago the idea was floated that the way for the Greeks to get out of their liquidity bind was to raid the nation's pension funds.  The geniuses in Argentina tried that one but of course having their own currency, the Argies could always print Pesos to "return" what had been sto...ah...borrowed.  Finding new Euros is a bit beyond Greece's capabilities today.  If this does occur, we could very easily see blood in the streets.  Nothing is worth that.

Today, Chrissie made it very clear that the Fund would not accept any delay in repayment.  OK, that was expected but that doesn't mean the Euros will go in the same direction.  However, before we reach that point there must be some movement on Greek restructuring called for by the Euros and the Greeks appear to be paralyzed.  Admittedly, an attempt to satisfy the demands placed upon them might well cause the fall of the government and certainly a fracture of Tsipras's party...a possible violent fracture at that.  No European leader has stepped forward to take ownership of this thing except for Frau Merkel who has a few other things on her mind.  Varoufakis is off romancing Il Duce as I write as thought that is going to accomplish anything.  Earlier in the day he gave a press conference in D.C. to all the gang at the IBRD/IMF meetings.  I've spoken with a couple of friends who were there and the general reaction seems to be that he did himself no good at all by being vague and indecisive.  I'm not surprised.  As I have said before, his exit from the proceedings would be the most positive event of the past month.  He could qualify as the finance minister of Atlantis being so for in over his head.  Well, perhaps William Hill is not the only game in town.  Perhaps.  Fait vos gageur, gents.  The wheel is spinning.

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