Thursday, March 26, 2015


Yesterday, the Greeks asked for the return of 1.4 billion Euros unspent from the bank relief fund.  They had every expectation of receiving it.  There was little hesitation on the part of their partners in Euroland.  No.  Brief explanation: it would be illegal and not without a comprehensive plan of restructure.  The Greeks still have every expectation of receiving the funds...and that is the problem

You could have Homer deliver the message and it would still not be understood.  The response could be considered in the rarefied world of finance ministries and central banks to have been brutal, but it seems to have had little effect.   Silence in Athens and vague promises to meet Monday's deadline in the production of a "plan."

I think the odds just went to about 3-1 in favor of a GREXIT; not because any one wants it but simply because the Greeks are going to stumble into it simply out of ignorance.  They don't understand what is being said but more importantly HOW it is being said.  At this point the EZ is clearly prepared to let them go and test the knock-on theory that so many have sponsored, namely if Greece goes, who will be the next to follow.  My answer?  No one.  At least not now, and perhaps not for a while.  This has been a straw man that at this stage is accepted only by the Greeks.  They really believe that in the end the EZ will fold.  It will not.

They can still get out of this box but we have reached the stage that some very important people will have to be given a means to escape a situation not entirely of their own making...and I do not mean the Greeks.  The EZ cannot seem to be capitulating at the last moment; it must be given a plausible reason to save Greece even if no one believes in the reason.  Greece is probably going to be forced into a meal of humble pie despite the internal political ramifications of such an action.  Forget about whether any plan agreed has the slightest chance of success.  That is unimportant, so one might as well agree to a plan politically acceptable to the EZ because it is they who have the money.  When it collapses at some point...well, blame it on changing world conditions but at least one lives to fight another day.

I hope to goodness that they really don't do something off-the-wall accepting financial aid from Russia which will end their future.  Problem is they might.  Tsipras and his crew are so far over their heads it's ridiculous.  We know about these things.  We are Americans.  Now there is commonality for you.

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