Thursday, January 29, 2015


I'm having trouble typing again but I did wish to highlight a few things as we go off grandchildren visiting tomorrow.

I, and I suspect a few others are more than a bit confused by some pretty contradictory messages being sent from here and there.  Janet, the other day, was all bright and cheery as to the state of the U.S. economy and job data today seemed to back that up.  And yet, there wasn't hardly a hint in any change in monetary policy until--best of the guesses--after June.  Some have gone so far as to say not until next year.  As you know I don't disagree as this Fed is so in the pocket of the administration that it is almost impossible to conceive of any action that might upset the apple cart.  But to be fair, with currency wars raging all over, any move upward in rates would send the dollar through the roof again.    So, may it be we really have full control over our monetary policy or is this Fed a hostage of politics both domestically and internationally?

Meanwhile, Over There, the ECB in it's first statement as Head Hummer to the Eurobanks began by warning them about compensation and dividend payments.  Gotta love it.  They have probably a billion Euro problem with Russia, a minor unknown with Greece, lousy domestic credits, Germany which just went into recession, the Poles up to their eyeballs in upside-down mortgages denominated in Suissies, an unknown need for beaucoup new capital and these clowns start the conversation off on dividends?!  I have to be nicer to Janet.

And speaking of Greece...well, they just set sail into the wine-dark sea and got the entire financial world mad at them just because of what and how they intimated.  New government and probably new advisors which has always been the case.  Now if it were me I would approach the problem with the Teddy Roosevelt suggestion but these guys seem determined to speak loudly whilst looking around for a stick.  The again, it may just be early excitement as a result of victory. In the coming fight between ugly and rational, the early line has it 8-5 ugly.  But nothing is going to happen at least until mid next week.  Everybody Over There is probably watching the Super Bowl as well.

See you Tuesday.

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