Wednesday, July 30, 2014


Six hours away from Argentina's umpteenth default unless a deal is done.  No point in speculating; we like everyone else will just wait and watch and report on the outcome tomorrow.  Can't wait.

Meanwhile, in the alternative universe Madame Chairperson and her Federal reserve announced today that while things are getting better the Fed's easy money policy will remain for the foreseeable future.  Oh, it was announced the GDP for the second quarter rose 4.00% from and adjusted -2.60% in the first quarter.  Gang, I'm sorry, but I just think these numbers are crap, perhaps not (or just perhaps) deliberately so, but swings like these cannot after a while be taken seriously.  It seems from the disconnect, the Fed doesn't take them seriously either and is making it up as it goes along.  So while the tapering continues, nothing happens on the short end…except that the 2-year sold at .54% all on its own--which was a great big jump from the last auction.  Why?  Beats the hell out of me, but everyone says "don't fight the Fed" except that the bond market is doing just that.  And to put a topper on the whole thing, the balance sheet just rose to $4.48 trillion which means that if he only thing Janet has going is this reverse repo idea, it's going to be the mother of all reverse repos to wind this thing down.  But Janet isn't going to do that unless she's forced to.  I wonder what happens if we get a 2% GDP number next time around?

Well, I stayed up past my bed time but it looks as though we have another Argentine default.  I wonder if I will lose any sleep…I guess I can always take a pill.

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