Tuesday, June 3, 2014


I had to run around to see two quacks yesterday in order for them to tell me that for my age I was doing really well…of course next to a 40 year old I was a wreck but, hey, think of the knowledge and experience one accumulates. As it turns out I didn't miss much.

Which is why Mad Max called this morning to thank me for getting the last few weeks spot on and asking for advice as to what to do now.  That may not seem like much, but Max asking for advice is HUUUUUGE!  Max never asks for advice; Max trades and usually makes money so doing.  Well if Max asks there's more than a bit of uncertainty out there so he wasn't the least bit surprised when I told him I hadn't a clue.  And I don't.  I few weeks ago everybody was short bonds which meant that the least risk trade was long or close out while the profit was still there.  Well, the outlook changed, the shorts got killed and the run for cover trade has put the ten year back to around 2.54%.  Quo Vadis?

All eyes this week are on Sr. Draghi at the ECB and what surprises he might bring.  There is no bid---and I mean NO bid that he is going to announce a tightening.  The state of Europe is awful and policy maker seem to be looking entirely to the Central Bank to set things right.  The problem is Sr. Draghi doesn't have the tools of his western counterparts.  What he DOES have as well is a diverse group of highly involved client states, each with their own idea as to how he should proceed and a myriad of laws and regulations emitting from Brussels but from individual member states as well each of which he must be aware.  Unlike Over Here where The Leader is perfectly content to allow the Fed to attempt to bail him out of his fiscal and economic policies and a Congress that's too busy in the game of politics Sr. Draghi has no where near the latitude of Ms. Yellin.

It is not surprising, then to see the paucity of trading in the markets, including equities which, with all the uncertainty sort of roll right along picking up new record highs seemingly every day. It's almost boring.  What seems to be heating up however is the US of A vs. Soc Gen which has not had French knickers in a twist like this since  Montelena and Stags Leap thumped them in 1976.  Oooow, are they mad at us and normally I would be on the side of anyone the Dreadful Holder goes after, but in this case…Anyway, we'll deal with that tomorrow unless things get un-boring.

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