Today was going to be all about China but unfortunately, Putin decided he had wasted enough time and bitch-slapped The Leader by sending in his version of Seal Team Six to occupy the Crimea.
He essentially admitted to it after the most tepid and useless response to the situation was put out from NATO headquarters this afternoon and was responded to by a, "Vladi, we don't like that," from The Leader at a hastily called press conference to which he (The Leader) was half an hour late as usual. Admittedly The Leader has two twos in the hole against four aces showing but the real problem is Vladi knows that. Russia has essentially won at this stage and all that is left is waiting to find out what the guy wants. It's not as easy as it sounds. The east and the Crimea are populated by a lot of ethnic Russians there, and as had been mentioned, a goodly group of Ukraines and Tatars, who don't like the other two but hate the Russians more. They are Muslims, united solely by hatred with all the other Muslims in the Federation. And then, just when you really don't want them near anywhere are the Turks, just across the Bosporus from the evolving mess. Vladi, listen to your buddy Charlie. Don't start shooting. You start, or even if you shoot back somebody in Turkey is going to get shot and then God knows what happens. Yeah, I know, NATO is a joke but NATO has this Article 5 thing and that comrade opens up a whole new can of caviar that must stay forever closed. What's that you say? That could never happen. Vladi, look around you. I know things aren't strapped down too tight at home but this part of the world has been nuts since Eve dissed Adam for the snake. Really crazy things happen here…really crazy things.
Oddly, equities fell sharply at the first news report but bounced back nicely. The 10 year yield on the other hand slipped again and now there is no question that there is real concern out there. I feel really sorry for the Ukraine, for as there is no doubt that the Russians feel really hard put at, in Moscow's eyes reneging on an agreement they are also in the middle of what is called in this part of the world a "pissing contest" between two enormous egos. The good things is The Leader could care less about them or any other international event. This President's interest and agenda will always be domestic and therefore, in the most perverse of ways, Putin will remain rational having really no one to fight.
Oh, there will be loses of sovereignty and land to a small extent, but if the assurances from the west are strong and believed and if the advice is taken in the manner in which it was taken in Poland, this might work out OK. In the end the loser will probably be Russia and its fool of a leader but not before more mistchief will arise. This weekend is very important; by Monday we will probably have some idea of how this is going to turn out. Well, one hopes. Wouldn't want anything to mess up Mardi Gras.
Next week: China and Italy..si Dio vuole.
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