Monday, November 11, 2013


I should have written something on Friday after the jobs number came out but I didn't.  On purpose.  Didn't know what to make of it.  Still don't.  Anyway, the number was up 200,000+ but in a break to the pattern the percentage of jobless rose to 7.4%.  The headline number got all the play but after a close and sober look it appeared that the Quality of the jobs created was low.  We are now at the point where any number gets parsed and cut 5 ways to Sunday, but at the end of the day markets are still looking at the Fed and it is the Fed that is going to determine future economic and market actions.

Ms. Yellen spoke today and it is even more clear in my mind that that the days of creating money are still with us and will be well into next year.  The Fed, whomsoever is running it and the ECB are on the same page.  Japan is certainly into the "Take it, it's free!" camp and the UK remains on board although there are more than just stirrings in light of an economy that seems to be doing far better than anyone had hoped (which is another thing I don't understand).  If the pressure to raise rates rises to the point where the Bank of England must act, there will be absolutely hell to pay in the Euro zone.  S'truth, I can't see that happening either.  Much easier to blame Germany for all the troubles on the continent although with economic growth at less than 1%, one wonders what the Germans are doing to deserve all the heat except operating in a monetary union that at this stage of it's development (or demise…take your pick) favors the efficient producer in a common market…hey, catchy phrase that; wonder if it has ever been used?

Over Here, The Leader seems consumed with deflecting public opinion on ObamaCare to the point where very little is happening.  I don't have a dog in this fight except to note that there appears to be more trouble lurking on the horizon that first believed.  The end of this week will come the promised first report on the number of sign-ups (or not, as the case may be) and the expiration of half of the time for the promise of the fixing of the web site.  More and more it appears that this effort will result in failure.  If this is the case and the sign-up effort collapses, some feel that the political pressures in a coming election year will result in wholesale abandonment of The Leader by vulnerable Democrats giving Republicans effective control of both houses.  I don't believe it but if that occurs, the effect upon economic activity due to the uncertainty could be devastating.  I realize that most readers already understand this but for those of you outside of our boundaries, probably covered by a single payer system of health care, this is a really big deal.  Stay tuned.

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