Friday, August 2, 2013


I'm telling you, the literary Gods are against me.  I was all set up and ready to report on the impact of the better than expected jobs number today.  Got up, made me a pot of Joe and was in front of the tube at 0827.   And then in the words of #1 Granddaughter, OH, MAN, as only a seven year old can say it.  162,000; no other way to say it: it was a stinker.  Oh yeah, the rate dropped to 7.4% but that was for the same reason that it has dropped every time in the past 5 years; people have dropped out of the labor force.  On top of that pay levels dropped as did hours per week (preparing for Obama Care?) and out on the grass wondering what happened to my easy, end-of-the-week entry.  James Bullard almost saved the day.

Big Jim is the president of the St. Louis Fed and has been a vocal supporter of Quantitative Easing since the program was announced two years ago.  Today he opined that due to the decline in the unemployment rate, it getting closer to the magic 7% mentioned by Boss Ben, perhaps it was time to start thinking about easing off QE.

Now I've always been a bit of a mixed mind on the Fed's dual mandate but when you get one of the strongest supporters of current Fed Policy thinking that this number today was anything but an absolute stinker it's time to consider putting up signs around the place that read;

                                              CAUTION!  BOZOS AT WORK

and start wondering whether they are getting stressed with too many assignments leading to the conclusion that keeping inflation under control may be all they need on their plate.  Hell, you can juggle the numbers to make that work and they are good at that.  One might also throw in the fact that Dr. Bullard has for his entire life either been in a university classroom or somewhere in the Fed. Now there's training for a job creator.

Needless to say, the markets paid no intention to the good doctor's musings.  Seeing no end to free money, the stock market rose and the 13 b.p.s the 10 year put on yesterday fell right off.  Things just meander along out there with no real purpose other than to go with the flow.  The Leader has been great for those that can be in this market but not so hot for the working stiff from whom I'm beginning to get some interesting vibes as there are a lot of those types in the fly-over zone.  A word of advice:  when returning home from a day at the office or on the shop floor and the wife wants to talk about a raise you haven't received, do not tell her that it's really not so important because inflation, if there is any at all, is benign.  That my friend is pot upside the head time because she is out all day buying all those things that don't go into the basket from which inflation is determined that the silly little girl thinks are important, like food.

I'm not smart enough to know what is the right way to go about this recovery thing but I am smart enough (I think) to figure out that what we have been doing for a while now ain't working.  Yeah, it's better, but it's not good enough.  Maybe the government should stop trying so hard and let Joe the Plumber or somebody like that have a go.  Can't hurt.

Grandchildren all next week beginning Sunday.  Things may be a bit spotty but there are the triplets and a seven year old to keep occupied.  How tired am I going to be.  OH, MAN!

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