EH, CHE

Holy Smokes, an Argentine!  The Italians will be relatively pleased as like half of the country the new Pope is of Italian Heritage.  They would have taken the American to their bosom, accepted the Canadian and disappeared for a month if it had been the Frenchman.  Watching the proceeding today I turned to Trouble and Strife and mentioned that despite being broke, having no government, massive unemployment and a declining industrial base do the Italians in St. Peter's Square look like they have a care in the world?  Of course not.  New Pope?  Carnivale!  No work tomorrow for anyone!  You gotta love 'em.  They even had a pretty good auction today; oh yields ticked up a bit but in the eyes of this market there is nothing to worry about.

Over Here, the benign state of the markets continues with generally good economic news popping upon a number of fronts so much so that the discussion has begun  as to when not if the Fed would be, if not tightening, certainly reducing the amount added to its balance sheet growth over the coming months. Surprisingly, however, with all the good news on corporate earnings and a number of positive statement from corporate leaders the one thing that is not up in the corporate world is hiring; payrolls have remained remarkable flat and there are no firm signs that the trend is any different.  Having drawn a line in the sand as to what it believes to be a appropriate unemployment rate at a level over one per cent below what we have today, I suspect we shall see continued easing in the immediate future.

And finally on today's short agenda are a few remarks as to the effect the  election of the first Latin American Pope will have on the region.  Will he be a crowning influence as John was in Eastern Europe?  Something more?  Less?  The last I think for at his age (76) he will have less time and energy than that of the jovial Pole.  The Argentines will make a meal out of their righteous national pride and as a result be even more disdained for a short period of time than they are already, but the economic and political influence will be minimal.  I think a broader Pastoral role will be the extent of his efforts in order to combat the rapid inroads the evangelical Churches have been making in the region, BUT, a Pope who takes on the outreach of many of the more liberal orders within the Church of today could have a power full influence on the socio/political development of the entire region.  Just imagine that alongside the growth of the "legend" of Chavez (already underway), a Church with the Missionary philosophy of, say, the Maryknolls, the influence it could have in the Latin America of today.   I make no judgement, just the observation.  It will be something to watch for Urbi et Orbi.