Monday, June 4, 2012


Bank holiday weekend in Europe today with all the stuff going on for HM in London.  Wonderful show yesterday.  I especially enjoyed the Last Night of the Proms on the River.  And people say the Yanks are too full of themselves.  Jerusalem?  Do get along lads.

Anyway, had one wished to have a bit of a serious chin-wag yesterday or today was the day to do it because no one was paying attention, but no, not the geniuses at the G7.  Oh no.  Instead, they had to wait until today to announce that they are going to have an "emergency" conference on Euroland tomorrow which means that everyone will be waiting for the results the entire day and that there had best be results.  If there aren't, the markets will probably tank so hang on for what could be a bumpy Tuesday.

This mob has a problem with markets; they don't understand and therefore ignore them.  They are still talking about IMF involvment; there is exactly zero chance in this election year that the U.S. will go along.  They are still talking about recapitalizing the banks; what the hell for, the money will pour out as fast as they put it in?  They are still talking about a stronger fiscal union: the deck chairs are beginning to float.  Germany is talking about a central budgitary process; Uber alles in die welt. Good luck.  What they can"t talk about is what steps are going to be taken when Greece gives up the ghost which the entire world knows is going to happen because that will crush the markets for good if found out.  Which is why one does these things in private.

Look, it was a bad idea from the get-go.  Greece doesn't belong,  never did.  Say so, but in the context of  a plan as to what will be the actions of Euroland in connection with the G7.  Support for Greece both fiscally and economically.  Uncle can buy into that and you better get us involved.  So can the World Bank and the IMF with watered down programs.  Central Banks can speak in broad terms of "currency stabilization" and oh, by the by, all deposits in Spanish banks and anywhere else in Euroland are just fine so don't try to transfer them to Germany or France or Merry Ol' becacuse they will not be accepted in any case unless you pay a bloody great penalty.  The Swiss are in on this as well so don't go there.  In fact if you are ahead of the curve and wish to bring some back in, we'll pay you to do so.  And while we are at it. we would sure like you international investment banks that do business in Euroland to support the next Spanish bond issue.  Good credit that (see us outside the room, would you?).  But they wont.  They'll blabber something tomorrow and get themselves deeper in a hole.  So watch out but think about what I have said.  This tuff ain't  that hard.  He's a little secret; we've done it before

No comments:

Post a Comment