Wednesday, April 18, 2012


For tomorrow and the auction.  I lost a bet today:  I wagered on some grand announcement late in the day that a couple of important Spanish States would come forward to say they had reached complete agreement with the government as to all things financial.  Had that happened--and it still may--the prospects for a decent result tomorrow would have been much improved.  Right now they stink.  Any sort of a decent result is purely the result of the ECB being a bidder early and often.  Not allowed you say?  What if I told you it is not unheard of in Europe for institutions to act as agents for an issuer or a concerned party such as the ECB.  Would I as the head of Bankhaus Charlie buy a boat load of Spanish 10 year if the ECB asked me to do so?  Bet your butt I would.  Friends in high places are good things to have...especially if they come with a put to them.  But rather than speculate, let's wait until tomorrow to see how this comes down.

Oh, by the by, the stock boys sold today upon learning that the Spanish Banks non performings were well up in the 8% range.  Shock.  Want to know a little dirty secret?  The non performings have a lot to do with real estate loans and holdings.  With an honest appraisal, the non-performings are probably at least.  I wonder when they are going to figure that out?

Tomorrow, gang.

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