Thursday, March 8, 2012


The polls closed at 3:00pm EST in Greece but of course it takes a while for the cemetery vote to be counted.  The important numbers once again: 75% tender and the CACs can be activated; 90% tender and the CDSs are not activated.  You can bet you boots that they are trying like hell to get to that 90% number and as of a half hour ago the Greeks were claiming, in an obvious scare tactic, that they were, "Very, very close."  Let me tell you one way that can be interpreted.

I have no idea how close the Greeks are to the magic number but at this stage they know EXACTLY what that number is.  They also know who's in and who's not so what you do is set up a big game of chicken.  Those that are not in keep receiving calls telling them that it's now or never; if you sign up you get this amount, if you don't despite the fact that you may think you have cover NOW when we reach 90% you have nothing.  The other side has to guess just what it is they can believe unless they have a player on the inside--that means they have bribed somebody--and have the same counting board as the Greeks.  If the phone calls continue, that's a pretty clear indication that the magic 90% isn't there.  Then what does one do?  He drops a dime.

The conversation goes something like this...

"Stavros, tegalis, it's Charlie."

"Charlie my old dear friend!  Good to hear from you, have you sent in you acceptance."

"Not quite, Stavros.  Tell me, how badly would you like to see us in...just between you and me of course."

If there are some of you out there who are still pure as the driven snow and think that in order to hit the number the Greeks would not agree to pay just a touch up to some small holder of debt who could queer the deal by staying out...think again.  All you need is one thing: the number is small enough that it's gain or loss will, in the long run, not have a material effect on either party.  In a 100 bllion Euro deal you think a couple of tens of millions in aggregate with another 130 billion to come counts to Greece?  Nah.  I don't think they have what they need but it will not be until tomorrow at 11:00 GMT when we find out if they missed it big time or if the dead rise and walk again to the place of tender.  Have a good night's sleep.

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