Wednesday, February 8, 2012


Short piece today because I don't have a clue what's going on out there.  Oh not Greece, Massimo has put us straight on that one; we just wait a little longer and his predictions will probably come true.  No, what I'm talking about is my bold (and dead wrong) prediction, to this date at least, that the Euro was headed down the gurgle tube.  Let's review the bidding.

1.  Greece is bust and is going to default either tomorrow or the next day, or the next day, or...

2.  Portugal is probably going to be next.

3.  Hungary, while not in the Euro is a mess.

4.   Spain is a mess.

5.  Italy will probably (maybe) make it according to Massimo.

6.  German economic numbers today were awful.

7.  France predicts zero growth.

8. Euroland will probably have negative growth, and


Now that's not the way I learned things but that's the way things are and I say to myself, "Self, why?"  I don't get an answer.  Is it as simple as the the Fed and the ECB being relied upon to save the world and everyone believes it or is there more afoot?  Honestly, I haven't a clue, or is it simply the FX market as well that has succumbed to the belief that the only metric that counts is the direction of the last trade and damn the fundamentals.  I'm going to ask my Really Smart Friend, Larry to explain all of this to me and if he can, I'll let you know.

Oh, if anyone cares, all the Euros meet tomorrow in Brussels...starting at 1800, two hours before dinner time.  That should really be productive.

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