Wednesday, January 25, 2012


As a speech, it was a yawner.  As a call to arms, not even close.  The Leader, for it seemed the Nth. time addressed a campaign rally in front of both Houses of Congress with less than his usual polish but with many of his same catch phrases.  Anyway, we know on what ground the battle will be fought no matter who the Republican nominee is to be.  Oh, by the way, it didn't appear that the state of the nation was all that good.

That view was reinforced today (I think) by the FMOC who announced for the first time it's long term interest rate forecast.  Like, Zero, into 2014.  How this can be interpreted in any other manner than they believing that the outlook for the economy is dead in the water is beyond me.  Nevertheless, the stock market which had been down in double didgits all morning suddenly shot up, once again proving that despite all the talk of analysis, charting, fundamentals and the like, the market is concerned only with how much money is sloshing around and dominated by traders who would sell their mother for an 1/8.  Why bother one might ask.

The IMF got into the act late yesterday with a really gloomy outlook, not only for Europe which is first on its mind but for the world economy in general, lowering its growth rates across the board while calling for increased funding to deal with the problem.

Not to be outdone, George Soros put in his two cents today saying he didn't like the look of things, if growth didn't return to Europe things were going to get worse and beforegrowth could return Euroland would have to reorganize.  Right.  Now of course the only thing Soros ever cared about was making money and creating chaos (he makes money whether things move up or down...they just have to move) so the trick now is to figure out what is Soro's real view and act accordingly.  From what he was intimating, I would not be long Euros and it would seem is that the "Risk On"--the new buzz phrase--is in commodity related trades.  Not having a bean there is no point in watching what I do but as they used to say in the great cop show,  Hill Street Blues, "Let's be real careful out there."

Almost lost in all this is the continuing saga of Greece that seemed to have a pause between acts.  I was thinking about the situation all last night and was wondering whether it was correct to say as I did that the Euros may feel that they can lose Greece or was it more correct that this pause is really for a final moment for reflection on their part.  You see, the geniuses who set this up never created a mechanism for departing from the Union and if anything, the Euros are big on following preceedure...always have been...a trait that has never served them particularly well in the past.  And so we wait.  And wait.  No point in speculating, let's see what the dawn will bring.

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