Wednesday, December 14, 2011


...but there is always a creditor committee at the end of the day.  I'm not sure who will be representing whom but in regard to a creditor committee for Greece (in the old days we used to call it an advisory committee, but then it was all banks) and the join up of White & Case and Allen & Overy has a long history of working together representing either the creditors or the obligors.  It would be a natural.

On the other side, I think you will find Lazard who have been working with the Greek government (whatever that may be at the time) for a while and if I were a betting man, counsel will undoubtably be Cleary, Gottleib, Steen & Hamilton.

This is going to be a rather a fun thing to watch.  The law firms are absolutely first class and the best in the business at this sort of thing.  I do not know Blackstone in regard to sovereign debt (trading and investing is not the same as restructuring) if it is to be them  and my impression of Lazard after a few past dealings with them is that from time to time their Gaelic approach--we call it ego--is a bit too much in the forefront, this being the Paris bunch that is involved here.  Then again, times and people change.  But not at Cleary.  The crew that has been working on sovereign debt issues aince the early 1980ies will be involved.  They are very, very good.

I'm going to hold to my original forecast and bet we get through Christmas and into the new year.  No one wants to formalize an action such as this at this time of year in Europe and the Greeks have enough money to get through the next few months.  However, there seems to be no question that the die has been cast and early in the first quarter the proceedings will begin.  In the mean time, I'm sure you have noted the continued slide in the Euro; firmly below 1.29 today and the erosion of M-1 across all of Europe with the Greeks announcing the decline of bank deposits of over 4% I believe in October which I am sure is continuing.  Liquidity is drying up and more and more is the realization that what was achieved last week was a farce.  The failure to recognize or to admit to what was a credit event and a structural shift has been to exacerbate the problem and to create a monstrous liquidity problem as well.  For the Greeks, there is no way out.

Thanks, Carter.  I was an author in need of a subject.

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