BEWARE OF GREEKS...

Well, we're back. The eulogy went well but in the time we were on Long island I lost a cousin and another dear friend who was exactly my age. Things come in threes so I guess I'm safe for a while. But when the Big Trader decides to lift your bid...anyway you can't worry about it.

What one can worry about is Greece. The Greeks owe a hell of a lot of people a hell of a lot of money and have to borrow nearly $40 billion in the next few months just to keen the loans rolling (remember, a rolling loan gathers no loss). It anit out there, at least not yet from the usual sources. Now Greece is no Iceland; it is a real country and the consequences of a default are more than a touch dire for the Euro Zone, Euro Banks and the entire fabric of the European Union. The Greeks are also a bit nuts...at least in my experience. One is never quite sure which Greek you are going to get when one wakes up in the morning. Consequently, there is more than a tiny chance that something could fly off the rails before this is over--not that I'm making a prediction but the chance is there.

Now I must admit prior to may absence, I was going to explore who holds the Greek debt and in what form as the answer to those questions will go a long way in determining how this rescue package is to proceed. late this afternoon, the Journal announced that the sing on the Greek Central bank was about to have added, "Deutsche Bundesbank, Prop." but that has yet to be confirmed. I can't imagine any of the governments going it alone on this one--or even in concert--without exploring the well-known concept of "burden sharing" on the part of commercial creditors but until we know the size and stock of the debt how this could be structured cannot be know. That's my job for tomorrow. Anyway, our stock market took heart and rallied so maybe somebody knows more than I do...which wouldn't be the first time. Most remarkable, however, is the fact that the Greeks were lying through their teeth as to the state of their finances FOR YEARS and neither the EU, the Fund or anyone else who should have cared picked it up. Of course, my really smart friend Larry has been blowing the whistle on this for a couple of years now but nobody listened. Waiting in the wings of course are Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain so how this is dealt with is of no little consequence. Things are changing overnight so we'll pick up this tale tomorrow.

Nice to be back.